In 2024, multiple data sets in China's new energy vehicle industry will break records; In 2025, the wave of new energy in China's automotive industry will continue to surge. Recently, a reporter from Shanghai Securities News learned that with the concentrated release of a new round of favorable news at the beginning of the year, industry associations, research institutions, mainstream automotive companies and other relevant officials have put forward optimistic expectations and higher targets for the sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China by 2025. At the same time, the pace of China's new energy vehicle products and production capacity going global has not stopped, and the overseas market is expected to achieve sustained growth in the new year.
Expected increase in sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles due to policy warming and frequent blowing
Recently, there have been continuous positive news about new energy vehicles from the central to local levels.
The General Office of the Ministry of Finance recently issued a notice requiring that for new energy vehicles that can meet actual usage needs, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the total annual procurement of official vehicles should not be less than 30%. For official vehicles with relatively fixed routes and mainly driving in urban areas, 100% of them should be purchased from new energy vehicles in principle.
On January 3rd, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that over 60% of consumers chose to purchase new energy vehicles during the trade in program, driving the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles to over 50% for six consecutive months. In 2025, we will fight the battle of dual control of energy consumption and study comprehensive evaluation and assessment methods. Further improve the policies and standard systems of finance, taxation, investment, pricing, etc.
The Shanghai Municipal People's Government recently issued the revised "Regulations on the Management of Non Commercial Bus Quota Auction in Shanghai", which allows for the auction of licenses after paying social security or personal income tax for one year. This new regulation is seen by the industry as an important way to relax Shanghai's car purchase policy.
Several industry experts told reporters that although there are currently many concerns about carbon emissions and new energy internationally, China's determination to develop new energy vehicles is very firm, which will help improve the industry's prosperity and the performance of key enterprises.
According to the latest forecast from the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, it is optimistically estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach around 16.5 million units (including exports) by 2025, with a growth rate of nearly 30% and a penetration rate of over 50%. Domestic demand is expected to reach 15 million units, with a penetration rate of over 55%.
After 3 to 4 years of rapid growth, the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle industry has been evenly distributed with oil vehicles. However, the development of any industry will not rush all the way, and may stabilize at a certain stage and gradually enter a mature period. "Zhang Yongwei, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Congress, analyzed that by 2025, the overall Chinese automobile market represented by new energy vehicles will show a trend of" steady progress ".
Zhang Yongwei believes that the new energy electrification of passenger cars has entered a normalized development, while commercial vehicles are entering a rapid ramp up period. New energy commercial vehicles have an advantage over fuel vehicles in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO) throughout their entire lifecycle in certain fields, so the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles will rapidly increase.
The Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association predicts that by 2025, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles in China will approach 1 million units, with a growth rate of 80%, showing a trend of explosive growth. Especially the penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks will grow rapidly, with conservative estimates that sales will exceed 110000 units by 2025, and the penetration rate will exceed 20%. In addition, the urban logistics and distribution market will also show a rapid development trend.
The High Tech Industry Research Institute also expressed optimistic expectations for the industry: by 2025, policies such as trade in, tax incentives, and car purchase subsidies are expected to continue, stimulating demand in the automotive market to maintain growth. Combined with the requirements of the Central Economic Work Conference to support the implementation of new energy vehicles in rural areas and the continuous promotion of the trade in policy, it is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 16.1 million by 2025, and the penetration rate of electrification is expected to exceed 50%.
Mainstream companies are raising their annual new car sales targets one after another
Under the overall growth trend of the industry, mainstream enterprises have successively increased their annual sales targets for new energy vehicles.
On January 2nd, Zhang Xinghai, Chairman of Sailis Group, clarified his 2025 goals in an internal letter to all employees: to anchor the luxury car camp in Wenjie, maintain the top spot in sales of M9 anchored luxury cars, and achieve a doubling plan for new energy vehicles in overseas markets. Zhang Xinghai also stated that within three years, Sailis new energy vehicles will achieve a sales target of one million vehicles.
As the vehicle company that has benefited the most from partnering with Huawei, the latest production and sales report data from Serys shows that the company's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 426000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 182.84%. The new M7 model under the intelligent luxury new energy vehicle brand WENJIE, jointly developed by SAIC and Huawei, has ranked first in sales of new energy vehicle models in China for 12 consecutive months. Another WENJIE M9 model has also won the top spot in sales of luxury models priced at 500000 yuan or above in the Chinese market. The development tone of Serys in 2025 is that status comes before scale, "said Zhang Xinghai.
On January 2nd, Geely Automobile announced that its annual sales target for 2025 is 2.71 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Among them, Geely's brand sales target is 2 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20%; Jike and Lynk&Co had 320000 and 390000 vehicles respectively, an increase of 44% and 37% year-on-year. In terms of new energy vehicles, the target for 2025 is 1.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 69%, with an expected penetration rate of over 55%.
This goal is quite pragmatic and cautious, "said Gui Shengyue, CEO of Geely Automobile Holdings." By 2024, Geely Automobile has made a significant breakthrough in sales of new energy vehicles, but the success of the new energy transformation ultimately needs to be reflected in profits. Geely's new energy vehicle sector has now turned losses into profits and is expected to achieve comprehensive profitability by 2025. Only when new energy vehicles achieve comprehensive profitability can the true success of the transformation be proven
Xiaomi Group Chairman Lei Jun recently announced Xiaomi's new goal for cars: "By 2025, our delivery target is 300000 vehicles. In the new year, we will continue to expand production capacity and ensure delivery." NIO Chairman Li Bin said that NIO's goal for new energy vehicles by 2025 is to double overall sales to 440000 vehicles.
Export continues to grow, new overseas factories bring new production capacity
As a key project of high-quality co construction of the "the Belt and Road", Phase I of the Qiankai Port Project in Peru has been officially put into use recently. 40 L4 level intelligent driving trucks under SAIC Group have also been commercialized in Peru as the first batch of large-scale intelligent driving port transport vehicles overseas in China. According to sources from SAIC Group, Chinese new energy vehicles are transported to the Latin American market through Qiankai Port, which significantly shortens the travel time and saves approximately 20% of transportation costs.
The Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association predicts that by 2025, China's exports of new energy vehicles (including local production) will reach 1.4 million units, with a growth rate of 10%. Among them, Latin America, ASEAN, and the Middle East are key regions for China's new energy vehicle exports. When looking ahead to the future export situation, Huachuang Securities stated that although exports to the European and American markets face uncertainty, there is enormous growth potential in markets such as Central and South America. In addition, with the development of Southeast Asia and other regions, China's automobile exports will usher in new opportunities in these emerging markets.
At the same time as their products go global, Chinese new energy vehicle companies will usher in a new wave of capacity going global in 2025. BYD recently announced detailed plans for its Segde factory located in southern Hungary. According to the plan, the SEGD factory will start production by the end of 2025 and can produce 12 new energy vehicle models, mainly mid-range cars and plug-in hybrid cars.
The Great Wall Motors Brazil factory is expected to start production in mid-2025. In addition to meeting the supply demand for new energy vehicles in the Brazilian domestic market, the new factory will also serve as Great Wall Motors' fourth largest global production base. The factory will have the ability to produce 50000 vehicles within three years, and the output will exceed 10000 vehicles by 2025.
In the past, the export of automobiles was mainly for trade, but in the future, joint ventures and cooperation will become symbiotic enterprises, with more cooperation in capital structure and production, and a new model of interest coordination to internationalize. "Zhang Yongwei said that Chinese new energy vehicle companies cannot just copy domestic tactics like in the past, but also learn to understand the world.
Xu Haidong, Deputy Chief Engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stated that achieving localized production through direct investment or joint ventures is also a way to avoid high tariffs when going global. For enterprises, overseas direct investment tests their ability to understand local information regulations, logistics capabilities, financial support capabilities, local production and supply chain system coordination capabilities, after-sales service capabilities, as well as comprehensive abilities such as how to integrate into local society and culture.
